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Russia has probably lost a third of its forces on the ground in Ukraine and the troops left have been exhausted and have been unable to make any territorial progress in recent weeks, British intelligence officials said early Sunday.
Russia “is now likely to lose a third of the force on the ground it deployed in February,” the United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defense said in an update.
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“The Russian Donbas Offensive has lost momentum and is significantly behind schedule,” the report continues. “Despite initial small-scale progress, Russia has failed to make any substantial gains in territory over the past month while maintaining consistently high levels of depletion.”
The British government also said these losses will “almost certainly” increase as tactical and support equipment runs out.
“These delays will almost certainly be exacerbated by the loss of critical resources such as bridging equipment and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance drones,” the British government said. “Russian bridging equipment was scarce throughout the conflict, delaying and limiting offensive maneuvers.”
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The report added: “Russian forces are increasingly constrained by … low morale and reduced combat effectiveness.”
The British Ministry of Defense predicted that the Russian armed forces would not return to the initial successes they saw unless these circumstances change substantially.
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“Under the current circumstances, it is unlikely that Russia will accelerate its advance drastically in the next 30 days.”
Russia initially invaded Ukraine on February 24, and experts predicted that Ukrainian forces would have to surrender within weeks.
Conversely, Ukrainian forces have fend off the aggressors, and a wave of international support has helped the smaller country stay in the fray.